1. Analysis of the price trend of stainless steel 304 in 2024
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Overview of price trends in 2024
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In early 2024, the price of stainless steel 304 showed a fluctuation upward trend, mainly affected by the rise in nickel prices and the recovery of market demand.
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After the second quarter, prices experienced a phase pullback due to global economic fluctuations and the release of production capacity in some countries.
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It is expected that as demand for infrastructure, new energy and other industries grows in the second half of the year, prices may rise slightly.
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Recent price data reference (taking cold rolling 304/2B as an example)
Time Price range (yuan/ton) Trends January 2024 15,000-15,800 Slightly rising March 2024 16,200-17,000 Climb Rapid June 2024 15,500-16,300 Slightly fall
2. Six key factors affecting the price of stainless steel 304
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Nickel price fluctuations (core factors)
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Stainless steel 304 contains 8%-10.5% nickel, and the nickel price accounts for about 50%-60% of the cost.
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Indonesian nickel ore export policy and LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel futures market directly affect the price of stainless steel.
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Changes in market demand
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Construction Industry (accounting for about 30%): The demand for real estate and infrastructure projects directly affects the purchase volume of 304.
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Manufacturing (automotive, home appliances): Economic recovery drives growth in stainless steel consumption.
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New Energy Industry (Photovoltaic, Energy Storage): The application of 304 stainless steel in battery brackets and chemical equipment has increased.
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Raw material costs (chromium, iron ore, etc.)
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Fetrochrome price fluctuates (20%-25% of the cost).
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The rise in energy costs such as coke and electricity will push up smelting costs.
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Policy and Trade Environment
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China's carbon neutrality policy: Production restrictions may reduce supply and push up prices.
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International trade friction: For example, the EU's anti-dumping duty on China's stainless steel affects export prices.
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Inventory and supply side changes
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Production capacity adjustments of major domestic steel mills (Taigang, Baosteel, Qingshan).
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The level of social inventory reflects the balance of market supply and demand.
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Macroeconomic factors
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U.S. dollar exchange rate (imported nickel is settled in US dollars).
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Global inflation levels affect commodity pricing.
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3. Future price forecast and procurement suggestions
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2024 second half trend forecast
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If the nickel price is stable, the estimated price range is 15,800-17,500 yuan/ton.
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We need to pay attention to Indonesia's nickel ore export policies and China's infrastructure investment efforts.
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Procurement Strategy Suggestions
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off-season stockpiling (such as demand in June-August and the price may be lower in the off-season).
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Long-term Agreement: Sign a fixed price agreement with a steel mill to avoid volatility risks.
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Alternative Materials: Consider a more stable price of 430 stainless steel or aluminum (non-high corrosion environment).
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